"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those rather than parlays. Some of you might not understand how to bet an "if/reverse." A complete explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, combined with the situations where each is best..
An "if" bet is strictly what it appears like. Without a doubt Team A and IF it wins you then place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at different times is a kind of "if" bet where you bet on the initial team, and if it wins without a doubt double on the next team. With a true "if" bet, instead of betting double on the second team, you bet the same amount on the next team.
You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and secure the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you intend to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can be made on two games kicking off concurrently. The bookmaker will wait until the first game is over. If the first game wins, he will put the same amount on the second game though it was already played.
Although an "if" bet is in fact two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the second bet. As soon as you make an "if" bet, the second bet cannot be cancelled, even if the second game has not gone off yet. If the initial game wins, you should have action on the next game. Because of this, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games without a doubt overlap in time, however, the only method to bet one only when another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap with time, cancellation of the next game bet isn't an issue. It ought to be noted, that when both games start at different times, most books will not allow you to fill in the next game later. You must designate both teams when you make the bet.
You can create an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I wish to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and, only when Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the first team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the second team. No matter whether the next team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet will be $110 when you lose on the first team. If the initial team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. If so, if the second team loses, your total loss will be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you would win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" will be $110, and the maximum win would be $200. This is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the entire $110, instead of just $10 of vig, each time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.
As you can see, it matters a good deal which game you put first in an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, then you lose your full bet. If you split however the loser is the second team in the bet, you then only lose the vig.
Bettors soon found that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty due to the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Rather than betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. https://idyee.com/ would put Team B first and Team A second. This type of double bet, reversing the order of the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't have to state both bets. You merely tell the clerk you would like to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the effect would be the same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the initial "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a total win of $100. In the second "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and then $50 on Team A, for a complete win of $100. The two "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the effect would also be the same as if you played a single "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would set you back $55 in the initial "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the second combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would go onto to Team A. You would lose $55 on each of the bets for a complete maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs when the teams split. Rather than losing $110 once the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 once the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It computes this way. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the initial combination, and also have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you'll win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the second mix of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the first "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet offers you a combined lack of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you'll lose the $5 vig on the initial combination and the $55 on the second combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We've accomplished this smaller lack of $60 instead of $110 once the first team loses without reduction in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers could not put themselves at that sort of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 rather than $10) whenever Team B is the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us hardly any money, but it does have the benefit of making the risk more predictable, and preventing the worry as to which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows is an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations provide you with a headache, skip them and simply write down the guidelines. I'll summarize the rules in an an easy task to copy list in my own next article.)
As with parlays, the overall rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, if you can win a lot more than 52.5% or more of your games. If you cannot consistently achieve an absolute percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams can save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds some luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting on one shouldn't be made dependent on whether you win another. On the other hand, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the second team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the truth that he is not betting the second game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor comes with an additional cost of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets reduce the amount of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and for that reason "if" bets will cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Remember that next time someone tells you that the best way to win would be to bet fewer games. A good winner never wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" workout a similar as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
As with all rules, you can find exceptions. "If" bets and parlays should be made by successful with a positive expectation in only two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or perhaps a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I could think of which you have no other choice is if you are the best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of your tux which means you left it in the automobile, you only bet offshore in a deposit account without line of credit, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap in time, you pull out your trusty cell 5 minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
As the old philosopher used to state, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your head up high, put a smile on your face, search for the silver lining, and create a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Needless to say you could bet a parlay, but as you will see below, the "if/reverse" is an effective replacement for the parlay should you be winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there is a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the benefit of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the standard expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within the same game, they must be made as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage comes from the fact that we make the second bet only IF one of many propositions wins.
It could do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We'd simply lose the vig regardless of how often the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when among our combinations comes in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the intended purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win will be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse without the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or higher will come in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" includes a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay includes a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay will be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we are not in a 50-50 situation. If the favourite covers the high spread, it is much more likely that the overall game will go over the comparatively low total, and if the favorite does not cover the high spread, it is more likely that the game will beneath the total. As we have already seen, once you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is really a superior bet to the parlay. The actual probability of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends on how close the lines on the side and total are to one another, but the fact that they are co-dependent gives us a positive expectation.
The point where the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet compared to the parlay when making our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is simply not as outrageous a win-rate since it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You merely have to win one from the two. Each of the combinations comes with an independent positive expectation. If we assume the opportunity of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or another must win) then all we need is a 72% probability that when, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the total 53 � at the very least 72% of that time period as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we are only � point from a win. A BC cover will result in an over 72% of that time period isn't an unreasonable assumption under the circumstances.
As compared to a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win an extra $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the results split for a total increased lack of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."